MAGAReport for 7/14/24 - post shooting reaction

Today: the immediate response to the assassination attempt

Within 10 minutes of the shooting at yesterday’s Trump rally, there were over 500 posts about it on the far-right forums I monitor. By now, hours later, there are thousands. Undoubtedly, people’s takes are going to change over the next few days as more information comes out. However, today I’m going to take you through the first round of immediate reactions on these online spaces because I think they give a good insight into how the MAGA crowd is thinking.

The one theme that ties all of these ideas together is the lust for violence. And that is not just because their preferred candidate and leader was attacked; I’ve been writing for months about how this community is craving violence and right on the edge. Today we really see that surface, and we see it targeted specifically at liberals and the media.

Democrats and the media did this. They are violent, angry, murderous, evil demons.

Main Concern: Threats Against the Media

The specific threat I came away most concerned about was threats of violence against the media. Sophia Cai of Axios was at the rally has an excellent and chilling thread about what the journalists there experienced immediately after the shooting.

This is notable especially because there was a physical attempt to get to the media and harm them. While emotions were understandably high in that moment, the discussions on these forums make it clear that this strong, aggressive anti-media sentiment is a long-standing and enduring.

Instead of me interpreting the posts from the forum for you, it’s worth directly reading a few to get a sense of the anger, appetite for violence, and consensus. These aren’t just single posts that get no attention. They garner a lot of enthusiastic replies and agreement. Here are a few examples.

Media's fault, imo.

Riled people up with bullshit about Trump being a dictator. Runs stories about Biden being senile and not wanting to drop…

Fuck the media, they are complicit in the attempted assassination of a president.

Don't turn on the left, we need to take out the media. These mother fuckers are the ones behind this shit pushing rhetoric like that bullshit Projext 2025 hoax. Fucking assholes deserve violence

This inspires two levels of worry for me. The first is that these more extreme Trump supporters will take it upon themselves to punish the media. I would expect this to be disorganized and spur of the moment. For example, they encounter journalists and, like Sophia Cai reported from the rally, they lash out at them. Physical and verbal assaults, attempts to destroy equipment, and intimidation are the kind of interactions I would expect here. I think this is likely to happen in the coming days, and my eyes would be on the GOP convention in Milwaukee as one obvious venue where it could happen. If a pro-Trump group were to assemble in support outside one of his properties, we may see this kind of anger directed at the media who shows up to cover that, too.

This worry levels up if Trump himself blames the media in some way and calls for them to be “held accountable”. I believe such a call would result in more serious attacks against journalists and media organizations. This is a scenario where I would expect destructive physical attacks against media facilities (bomb threats, shootings, crashed cars, etc.), more coordinated and sustained physical attacks on journalists at work, and disruption that would make it difficult for the media to work at Trump events.

For my friends in the media covering Trump and GOP events: it would be prudent to take extra precautions in the coming week (at least), especially in terms of situational awareness. Know if someone has access to you from behind or to your side. Try to know when people are approaching you. Do not trust that a barrier will stop someone motivated to punch you in the face. And for what it’s worth, you are unlikely to have much luck reasoning with an angry guy in a MAGA hat about your right to photograph him or cover him (which may always be true, but especially so this week).

I cannot emphasize how, for months and months, the far-right pro-Trump forums have been precariously close to tipping into violence. They have been stopped because there was no order nor mission, but the situation has now changed. To avenge the attempt on Trump’s life is their mission, and with anything that feels like an instruction from Trump, many will finally commit the violence they have been lusting for. (I have a lot more to say about the psychology of this phenomenon, but I will save that for another edition of the MAGAReport).

General Concerns

More generally, there is a lot of talk about civil war again. This is a recurring theme on the forums.

Looks like the Civil War just started

War now. They don't want to live and let live. We need to finish what should have been done afyerthe [sic] civil war: eradicate and eliminate all democrats and anyone that even thinks of being a democrat.

Lefties want a civil war.

Despite this rhetoric, there is limited appetite for doing the actual things done in a civil war. This group wants instant gratification and limited discomfort. That said, they also want violence and, as I’ve described here before, one-off violent events are probably the biggest risk. Those haven’t happened because they want to be told what to do - preferably by Trump himself - and they need to know it’s for a reason. In the discussions today, many of these followers seem willing to do Trump’s bidding.

The question is if he will use that power.