MAGAReport for 7/19/2024 - post-convention slump

A rollercoaster of emotion in MAGA-land this week

It has been quite a week for hard-core Trump supporters. The assassination attempt was just last Saturday and it took the simmering rage among his extreme supporters and focused it. On Saturday night, the violence was barely contained and, as I wrote then, I was convinced there would be attacks against the media during the convention. I am glad I was wrong, but the shift in vibe - to jubilant for most of the week and then bored and wilted during Trump’s culminating speech - was quite a ride.

At the convention, instead of riding a wave of rage from the shooting, the mood was downright gleeful. It felt like pre-game festivities with sports fans whose team is ahead 3 games to none in the championship series. When I spoke to conventioneers about the shooting and the media, they would say a few sentences about media bias but quickly move on to how excited they were that Trump was going to stop illegal immigration, fix inflation, and make cities safer. For those on the far-right forums, who seemed excited that the shooting finally gave them an excuse to go after the media and the left, the dissipation of anger was deflating. They hosted live chats during the convention each night but struggled to show much enthusiasm. Especially during the speech last night, I could see they were waiting to be ragebaited and they sunk into disappointment as that failed to materialize. It really highlighted for me how much of the community is connected by communal anger, and how little they have to talk about when things are going well.

That is not to say there is no worrying undercurrent of violence. The forums remain angry and ready for it. When I asked conventioneers about what would happen if Trump lost in November, “Civil War” was their most common answer. But when I followed up and asked who exactly was going to start and fight that civil war, they did not have an answer. On one hand, this is reassuring. On the other hand, it illustrates just how far we are outside the norm of a decade ago that there’s anything positive to be found in wide talk of civil war from a major party.

To sum up - there are no organized plans for violence or demonstration among the far right. It will be interesting to see how things go as Trump returns to the campaign trail.