Trump, Epstein, and the MAGA Fracture - MAGAReport 7/14/25

How MAGA is reacting and what effect it will have (if any)

Major Epstein-related drama has been brewing in deep-MAGA circles. The quick recap: Trump campaigned on promises to release the files on Jeffrey Epstein, the high-worth financial manager who was arrested for sex trafficking. Attorney General Pam Bondi went on FOX News in February and said the Epstein client list is “sitting on my desk right now”. When Trump and Elon had their big fallout, Elon tweeted that the reason the Epstein files hadn’t been released because was Trump is in them.

On July 7, the DoJ released a memo that said there was no Epstein client list. The belief in this list is a key element of Epstein-related conspiracy theories. The other element is the belief that Epstein did not commit suicide in his jail cell but rather that he was murdered. The DoJ released “raw” footage of the outside of Epstein’s cell that purported to show no one went in or out, but there is time missing from that video and metadata shows it was edited in Adobe Premier Pro with different bits stitched together.

MAGA is furious.

In the week since, Trump has tried to quell upset, telling people nobody cares about Epstein, his administration is the greatest ever, and people should just move on. But even with their deep devotion to Trump, a lot of the MAGA faithful are struggling.

There is some interesting psychology to this, which is ostensibly why I write this newsletter! The official narrative has been that Epstein committed suicide and that there wasn’t really an Epstein client list. MAGA does not just doubt that story; they believe there is a full on conspiracy theory around it. Conspiracy theories differ from simple doubt in that they require the belief that people in power are conspiring in secret to keep information from the public. This means conspiracy theories are much more serious things to believe in.

There are two main components in the psychology of conspiracy theory belief. One is what we call “epistemic mistrust”, or mistrust in official sources of information, authorities, and experts. This arises from suspicion, paranoia, perceptions of threats, and past trust being violated. The second is poor misinformation processing skills. This includes a need for closure, certainty, and control, a lack of analytic thinking, confirmation biases, and a bunch of other factors.

So with that background, if Trump comes out and, essentially, repeats the official narrative, it’s not simple for people to just stop believing in the conspiracy theory because the statement does not fulfill the psychological needs that the conspiracy theory does. His statement does not provide closure, certainty or control. It does not provide an analysis they can believe in. Trump can’t just short-circuit a conspiracy theory with a statement.

And if Trump isn’t releasing the files, the only logical next step is to believe that he must be part of the conspiracy. Elon must be right and Trump must be in the files, on the list, and implicated. MAGA is now struggling with that, and it’s not going well.

They have been vigorously protesting online, and MAGA officials and influencers have been pressuring Trump. The biggest news today is that Benny Johnson, conservative influencer and alleged Russian-funded content creator, interviewed Lara Trump who said Trump “Hears the Base” and will release more Epstein content soon. The replies to this on the MAGA forums show just how much trust Trump has lost:

• After saying there's nothing, now they're going to release something?

  • Lies upon lies upon lies.

    • Its just a big pile of wet shit at this point. Arrests. I want arrests. He is just placating us.

      • They won't release or do anything meaningful. They just want to try and do enough to make it go away, along with pressuring media and influencers to stop talking about it or lose access. They made a deal with the devil and this is all on them now.

        • If we cant get the truth from trump we are fubar.

• I want more than arrests, but could be temporarily placated with arrests

• Anyone at this point still hoping the rich and powerful and politically connected will ever see so much as a day inside a jail cell is hopelessly naive.

• They've lost my trust completely

• For what it's worth, I'm NOT placated.

  I want arrests. I want trials. And I want hangings.

  • I don't want more transparency. I want transparency.

    • They won't arrest, trial or hang themselves

      So yeah....get going on that state level succession

Some are trying to rationalize the DoJ release. They don’t believe Trump, but they are looking for a reason that he may be covering up the information. Cartoonist Scott Adams, a big MAGA loyalist, made a post that basically said “maybe it’s worth it to tolerate Trump being a pedophile if he does other great stuff”?

That is not landing well. Here are the most popular replies in the MAGA forums:

• A system which requires that pedophiles be protected in order to maintain itself does not deserve to survive.

  • Agreed. Stupid post.

    • Clott Adams with another L.

      • Yup I don't care covering for pedos is a hard line that cannot be forgiven. It's a sin. 1000s of victims and no clients...what a bullshit excuse. Those victims didn't rape themselves. Who raped those kids. Why was Epstein making child porn. Who was he selling it to? What was he doing with it ? .....I don't care. I want names and chargers bought.

        • We'll get the list in 20 years when all of the people on it are dead.

      • Correct.

        A system that covers for pedos, and lets be brutally honest here, the faggots have been leading the corruption in the USA for a while - means that the system itself is a piece of shit.

        Turmoil, chaos, all of it is not a justification to allow these fucking degens any kind of respite or relief.

      • Remember, the opposition thinks you're covering for a pedo by voting for Trump.

A few people tried to agree with Adams, but they did not gain much traction. One example:

• Disagree. Maybe these are bad reasons but he's saying what would you give or wouldn't you give. If releasing it would spark WW3 and destroy most of humanity (includes lots of innocent children) is it good to do? You can say yes but would you still be saying yes after the reality hits? Maybe it wouldn't even lead to one successful sentencing. Say it just names a couple people you already knew about, with not enough evidence to actually arrest them (one person- Epstein- having a note in their papers that someone is a client and having court worthy evidence of an actual crime are two diff things), and even some fake names to drag innocent people through the mud as Trump seems to imply, and it will cause utter destruction for the public to satisfy their curiosity. We voted for Trump to make such calculations. It's a good comment on that basis. Go ahead and downvote me, I don't need fake internet points.

So what’s next? I am not a great predictor of the future, but if I had to guess, it would be that this won’t make much of a difference. Trump is not really going to run again (they talk about it but also acknowledge that, at this point, “Trump 2028” is mostly a trolling exercise). None of his supporters are going to vote for Democrats. None of them are going to shift their political leanings or methods of engagement. The forums are still full of celebrations of his other “wins”. The majority of posts are about immigration, Supreme Court wins, trolling of anti-Trump voices, and anti-trans ranting.

I think even if Trump could run again, most of these people would still show up at his rallies and wear their MAGA hats. A few people may bail on him, but I do not see the tide really turning against him. Maybe they will go on to adopt a Scott Adams-like view down the line. Maybe they will start to believe that there is no additional Epstein information to release. Maybe they will just let it slide.

That is not to minimize the impact this is having in MAGA. It is deeply upsetting to a lot of people who believe in the vestiges of QAnon and that Trump was going to be an anti-pedophilia crusader, especially via his Epstein transparency. But MAGAs are not ideological purists; they accept almost anyone who says they are on their team. That makes it hard to see any path where they reject Trump over this.

Time will tell if I’m right about this.